The National Retail Federation expects US holiday sales to pass $1 trillion for the first time this year. But a closer look at how Americans plan to spend suggests a quieter shift: less money going to nights out and experiences, and more going into the home. For New Year's Eve, that points to one thing: the house party.
What's trending
On Thursday, October 15, the NRF released its 2026 holiday forecast. It projects November and December retail sales to grow 4.2% to about $1.013 trillion, up from $972 billion last year and faster than last season's 3.1% growth, according to IndexBox's coverage of the forecast. NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said the outlook reflects confidence that consumers will prioritize the holidays while keeping budgets in mind.
The same coverage points to a Deloitte survey of about 4,000 US consumers. It expects average household holiday spending to rise 4% to $1,654, driven by Gen Z and millennial shoppers. But the mix is changing. Deloitte expects retail spending to climb 10% while spending on holiday activities falls 4%.
Why it's resonating
Shoppers are still celebrating, just more selectively. Retailers including Walmart, Kohl's and American Eagle have pointed to pressure on household budgets heading into the season. When the cost of going out climbs, hosting starts to look like the better value.
That lines up with what the International Housewares Association found when it surveyed Americans about 2026. In its At-Home Entertaining Survey, fielded by Morning Consult, 28% of adults said they expected to host more gatherings at home this year, up from 24%. Nearly a third (31%) cited the lower cost compared with a restaurant or public venue. Gen Z led the way, with 47% planning to host more.
New Year's Eve is where those trends meet. Venue tickets, cover charges, rideshare surge pricing and restaurant set menus all peak on December 31. A living room, a few bottles of bubbly and a midnight countdown on TV cost a fraction of that, and nobody has to fight for a cab at 12:30.
The at-home New Year's Eve, done well
Hosting at home doesn't have to feel like a downgrade. The parties that feel special tend to have a few things in common:
- A clear start time and an "until midnight" promise, so guests know it's a proper night out, just at your place
- One signature drink instead of a full bar. A champagne toast at midnight does most of the work.
- A shared-plates menu or potluck, which keeps costs and cleanup down
- An invitation that sets the tone. It's the first sign to guests that this is an event, not a casual hangout.
That last point costs less than ever. Digital invitations sent by text have no printing or postage costs. Editable templates mean you're not paying a designer either. For hosts who want something glam without the usual black and gold, an editable silver sparkle design like the Cheers to the New Year Invitation can be texted to guests or printed as a 5x7 card.
The bottom line
Americans are expected to spend more than ever this holiday season, but they're getting choosier about where it goes. With spending on activities expected to dip and interest in hosting rising, especially among younger adults, this could be the year more New Year's Eve parties move out of bars and into the living room. Hosts who plan early, keep it simple and send invitations by early December will be ahead of the curve.
Sources: indexbox.io, housewares.org