Avian flu outbreaks pushed the US turkey flock to its smallest size in roughly 40 years, with wholesale turkey prices running about 40% higher year over year, and industry forecasts point to only a gradual recovery rather than a quick return to lower prices.
What’s trending
Reporting from Axios found that the US turkey flock had shrunk to its smallest size in roughly 40 years, with wholesale turkey prices running about 40% higher year over year heading into the most recent Thanksgiving season. Around 195 million turkeys were raised that year, down 3% from the year before, driven largely by highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks that forced the culling of millions of birds across multiple states. Industry forecasts pointed to a gradual production rebound, but not a full price correction, in the near term.
Why it’s resonating
Bird flu has been cycling through poultry flocks for several years now, but the scale of the most recent outbreak season pushed the story from an agricultural trade issue into something home cooks and hosts actually felt at the checkout. For anyone hosting a group dinner, a pricier or harder-to-source centerpiece bird changes the math on whether to go traditional, split costs across a group, or lean into a more casual potluck-style gathering instead.
Where this affects Thanksgiving hosting
A tighter turkey supply is one more reason a shared, potluck-style Friendsgiving makes practical sense this year rather than one host absorbing the full cost of the centerpiece dish alone. Getting everyone actually organized around who’s bringing what starts with sending a real invitation rather than a vague group chat mention — something like the Thanksgiving Party Invite Funny, Editable Canva Template comes with a free budget tracker built into its bonus party planner, which is a fairly direct fit for a cost-conscious, shared-hosting Thanksgiving this year.